https://itkservices3.com/posts.html Electricity markets analysis quarto-1.6.39 Sat, 06 Jun 2026 14:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/Batteries_morecoming.html This note serves to make two points: Storage Generation https://itkservices3.com/posts/Batteries_morecoming.html Sat, 06 Jun 2026 14:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/Post_coal_prices.html TL;DR Markets Generation https://itkservices3.com/posts/Post_coal_prices.html Sun, 31 May 2026 14:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/Whats happening down the hood.html Most subscribers to my research distribution list know me from the writing, but a lot has been built around it — a forecasting model, a dashboard, an iPhone app, market summary emails, SMS alerts. Most of it is free. This is a quick tour. Markets https://itkservices3.com/posts/Whats happening down the hood.html Mon, 18 May 2026 14:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/data_centre_backup.html Continuing my look at the data centre industry this note observes: Demand Networks https://itkservices3.com/posts/data_centre_backup.html Wed, 13 May 2026 14:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/data_centre_space_cadets.html Opposition to data centres in the USA has increased, spreading out from specific community level concerns to a broader argument about the impact on electricity prices. These concerns could harden into a widespread movement opposing AI and data centres, matched by a counter-movement insisting “AI and data centres are wonderful”. Demand Markets https://itkservices3.com/posts/data_centre_space_cadets.html Mon, 11 May 2026 14:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/the-spot-mirage.html Prices are too low to support either new generation or old generation. There is no investment signal. As a result, once the current 4 GW is built out, there will be a two year gap before any more supply other than rooftop solar hits the market. Markets Policy https://itkservices3.com/posts/the-spot-mirage.html Wed, 06 May 2026 14:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/Diesel_symptom.html One of the most interesting points to emerge from the security, cost and decarbonisation issues with diesel is a realisation that Australia’s coal production has likely passed its peak. Generation Investment https://itkservices3.com/posts/Diesel_symptom.html Mon, 27 Apr 2026 14:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/Twiggy.html Fortescue has taken a number of expensive “space cadet” wrong directions in its decarbonisation journey, principally around hydrogen. But on a reasonable set of numbers Pilbara electrification and in particular electrification of diesel trucks looks like it could deliver a close to 16% pretax IRR. ITK expects the Chinese suppliers will price well below normal — it’s a big market and Fortescue can serve as the showcase project. So I’ve used two sets of capex numbers. Some very, very low numbers implied from the most recent Fortescue press release and some more, but not necessarily sufficiently, conservative numbers. It’s the conservative numbers in the headline table. Our estimated savings are at the top end of the range mentioned by FMG but essentially consistent. For a desktop study it’s a reasonable result. More due diligence would no doubt result in more conservative estimates. Generation Investment https://itkservices3.com/posts/Twiggy.html Sun, 12 Apr 2026 14:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/In the year 2026.html Coal generation share has fallen below 50% and evening peak prices are well down, but without new wind FIDs in NSW the machine will grind to a halt. Markets Generation https://itkservices3.com/posts/In the year 2026.html Wed, 08 Apr 2026 14:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/Freight_forward.html I attended the Smart Energy/Boundless Freight Forwarding conference in the great hall at Parliament House yesterday. The audience was about 80% male. Policy Climate https://itkservices3.com/posts/Freight_forward.html Mon, 30 Mar 2026 13:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/Diesel_to_electricity.html Full electrification of Australia’s diesel fleet would redirect approximately $22 billion per year from petroleum imports to domestically produced electricity — equivalent to roughly 1% of GDP in import substitution. The associated CO2 reduction of 90 Mt (~15% of national emissions) represents a further welfare gain not captured in national accounts. At $176/t CO2, the AER shadow price represents around $15 bn in welfare gains. For scale, the NDIS costs roughly $45 bn per year. EVs Policy https://itkservices3.com/posts/Diesel_to_electricity.html Sat, 21 Mar 2026 13:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/Futures_jump.html My conclusion is that a rise in gas prices domestically — as international prices feed through — will lead to an increase in NSW spot electricity prices compared to pre-war expectations. But the extent will likely be minor if NSW coal continues to perform. Last year Mt Piper had a poor autumn. Markets https://itkservices3.com/posts/Futures_jump.html Thu, 12 Mar 2026 13:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/Longhaul.html Australia has a productivity opportunity by electrifying road freight on major corridors. The economic case has become outstandingly clear over the past couple of years and there are essentially no barriers. The payback period is 2-4 years depending on whether you’re replacing diesel trucks at end-of-life (2 years) or building the fleet from scratch (4 years). EVs https://itkservices3.com/posts/Longhaul.html Thu, 05 Mar 2026 13:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/China_update.html The following plots show China’s electricity consumption by fuel since 2016 and over the past 12 months Global Generation https://itkservices3.com/posts/China_update.html Thu, 26 Feb 2026 13:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/global_electricity.html The IEA releases a .csv file of global electricity data every month. It lags a bit due to its comprehensive nature, the latest data runs to November 2025. I maintain a dashboard on my website that updates the data every couple of months and looks at the trends. Global https://itkservices3.com/posts/global_electricity.html Thu, 19 Feb 2026 13:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/Changing_shape.html The following plot shows NEM wide demand for the past year compared to the Feb 2022-23 period on a time-of-day basis and the time-of-day, region-share-of-demand-weighted, NEM-wide spot price for both years. Storage Generation https://itkservices3.com/posts/Changing_shape.html Tue, 10 Feb 2026 13:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/safeguards.html <strong>“Of all follies there is none greater than wanting to make the world a better place.”</strong> — Molière Policy https://itkservices3.com/posts/safeguards.html Sun, 08 Feb 2026 13:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/battery_coal.html As discussed below, the volume impact is bigger than the price impact. There are a number of gross assumptions in the note below but I don’t think they detract from the message. Batteries are going to kill coal generation profits as well as gas. They may do more damage to coal than gas. Generation https://itkservices3.com/posts/battery_coal.html Tue, 03 Feb 2026 13:00:00 GMT David Leitch https://itkservices3.com/posts/Coal_gen.html Global Roam is arguably the longest running and most trusted name in the supply of NEM data and certainly the best placed to provide the comprehensive DUID by DUID analysis of generator performance. Greenview have deep practical knowledge of what it takes to succeed in the Australian energy market. Generation https://itkservices3.com/posts/Coal_gen.html Mon, 02 Feb 2026 13:00:00 GMT