Queensland Economic Data: Context for Climate Economics Analysis

Compiled 10 March 2026. Sources: ABS State Accounts (Cat. 5220.0), Queensland Treasury, QGSO, DFAT, ABARES, Deloitte Access Economics, Tourism Research Australia, QLD Budget 2025–26.

1. Queensland Gross State Product (GSP)

1.1 GSP Time Series

Queensland’s GSP at current prices reached $531 billion in 2024–25, making it Australia’s third-largest state economy after New South Wales and Victoria. Queensland accounts for approximately 19.1 per cent of national GDP.

Queensland GSP, current prices ($A billion), selected years

Financial Year GSP (current prices, $B) Source / Basis
2009–10 ~265 ABS 5220.0 (exceeded $200B in 2006–07)
2010–11 ~275 Growth impaired by floods/Yasi
2013–14 ~305 ABS 5220.0
2017–18 ~345 ABS 5220.0 (est.)
2019–20 ~365 ABS 5220.0 (COVID contraction year)
2020–21 ~375 ABS 5220.0
2021–22 ~425 5.5% real growth year
2022–23 464 ABS confirmed; DFAT QLD fact sheet
2023–24 512 DFAT QLD economic fact sheet
2024–25 531 DFAT QLD economic fact sheet

Source: ABS Australian National Accounts: State Accounts 2024–25; DFAT Queensland Country Economic Fact Sheet 2024–25. Earlier years are rounded estimates based on reported growth rates applied backward from the confirmed 2022–23 figure of $464B. Exact historical figures available from QGSO State Account tables (1989–90 to 2024–25).

Note on data access: The ABS State Accounts (Cat. 5220.0, released November 2025) and the QGSO State Account Excel tables contain complete annual time series from 1989–90 in both current prices and chain volume measures. The figures above for years prior to 2022–23 are author estimates derived by back-calculating from confirmed data points using reported real growth rates and an assumed GDP deflator. Official figures should be sourced from ABS/QGSO for publication.

1.2 Real GSP Growth Rates

Queensland real GSP growth (chain volume measures), annual percentage change

Financial Year QLD Real GSP Growth (%) National GDP Growth (%) Notes
2010–11 0.2 2.2 Floods + Cyclone Yasi
2011–12 ~3.5 3.6 Recovery year
2012–13 ~2.5 2.6 Mining investment peak
2013–14 3.5 2.6 Above trend
2014–15 ~2.0 2.3 Mining downturn begins
2015–16 ~2.0 2.8 Below long-run average
2016–17 ~3.5 2.4 Coal price recovery (real GSI +7.5%)
2017–18 ~3.0 2.8 Solid growth
2018–19 ~2.0 1.9 Slowdown
2019–20 -1.1 -0.3 COVID-19 contraction
2020–21 2.8 1.3 Recovery
2021–22 5.5 3.7 Strong recovery + commodity prices
2022–23 2.3 2.1 Normalisation
2023–24 1.7 1.5 Below trend
2024–25 2.2 1.4 QLD outperforms national

Source: ABS State Accounts 2024–25; DFAT QLD Country Economic Fact Sheet; QLD Budget 2025–26 BP2; RBA Bulletin (March 2015, March 2017). Tilde (~) indicates author estimates based on reported averages and context; confirmed data points are 2010–11, 2013–14, 2019–20 to 2024–25.

Key observations:

  • Queensland’s long-run average real GSP growth is approximately 3.0–3.5 per cent per annum (2004–2024).
  • The 2010–11 flood/cyclone year reduced growth to just 0.2 per cent — approximately 2 percentage points below trend, implying a direct disaster impact on GSP of roughly $5–6 billion in foregone output.
  • The 2024–25 result of 2.2 per cent made Queensland the second-fastest growing state economy (behind the ACT at 3.5 per cent), substantially above the national 1.4 per cent.
  • Queensland was one of only three jurisdictions (with ACT and Tasmania) where GSP grew faster than population in 2024–25.

QLD Budget forecasts (2025–26 Budget Paper No. 2):

Year GSP Growth Forecast (%)
2025–26 2.75
2026–27 2.50
2027–28 2.50
2028–29 2.50

Source: QLD Budget 2025–26 Budget Strategy and Outlook.

2. Population and Per Capita GSP

2.1 Queensland Population Time Series

Queensland estimated resident population, selected dates

Date Population Annual Growth (%) QLD Share of National (%)
June 2010 4,513,000 2.1 ~20.0
June 2012 ~4,600,000 ~1.9 ~20.1
June 2013 4,660,000 1.9 ~20.2
June 2015 ~4,780,000 ~1.3 ~20.2
June 2018 ~5,000,000 ~1.7 ~20.3
June 2020 ~5,090,000 ~0.9 ~20.3
June 2022 ~5,320,000 ~2.3 ~20.5
Dec 2023 5,516,476 — ~20.5
June 2024 5,583,833 2.3 20.5
Dec 2024 5,619,059 — ~20.5
June 2025 5,669,834 ~1.7 ~20.5

Source: ABS National, State and Territory Population (June 2025 release); DFAT QLD fact sheet; QGSO Population Estimates. Tilde indicates interpolated or rounded values. Queensland’s population grew 20.8% from 4.40M (2010) to 5.32M (2022). Five-year growth to June 2024 was 9.8% (+497,490 persons).

2.2 GSP Per Capita

Queensland GSP per capita

Financial Year GSP per capita ($A) Notes
2023–24 92,901 CEIC / ABS
2024–25 94,506 CEIC / ABS

Source: CEIC Data, citing ABS State Accounts.

Comparison with other states (2024–25):

  • Western Australia has the highest GSP per capita nationally, driven by mining output.
  • Queensland’s per capita GSP is above the national average but below WA.
  • Tasmania has the lowest per capita GSP (~$70,679 in 2023–24).
  • In 2024–25, Queensland’s real GSP per head grew 0.4 per cent, following a decline of -0.8 per cent in 2023–24 (DFAT fact sheet).

3. Sectoral Composition of Queensland GSP

3.1 Industry Gross Value Added (GVA), 2023–24

Queensland industry GVA, 2023–24 financial year

Industry GVA ($B) Share of Total GVA (%) Climate Exposed?
Mining 61.6 12.9 Moderate
Health Care and Social Assistance 44.4 9.3 Low
Construction 37.6 7.9 High
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services ~28.0 ~5.9 Low
Financial and Insurance Services ~29.0 ~6.1 Moderate
Education and Training 23.9 5.0 Low
Manufacturing ~28.6 6.0 Moderate
Transport, Postal and Warehousing ~22.0 ~4.6 High
Retail Trade ~18.0 ~3.8 Low
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing ~16.7 ~3.5 Very High
Accommodation and Food Services ~11.0 ~2.3 High
Tourism (satellite account, direct) 15.7 3.1 (of GSP) Very High
All other industries — ~29.0 —
Total GVA ~477 100 —

Source: QLD Treasury “Queensland’s Economy” (2023–24 data); ABS State Accounts 2024–25; DFAT QLD fact sheet; Tourism Research Australia State Tourism Satellite Account. Tilde indicates estimates; confirmed values are Mining, Health, Construction, Education, Manufacturing, and Tourism. Financial and professional services combined = $57.0B.

3.2 Climate-Exposed Sectors Summary

The sectors most directly exposed to climate variability and extreme weather events account for a substantial share of Queensland’s economy:

Climate-exposed industry shares, Queensland, 2023–24

Sector GVA ($B) % of GSP Key Climate Risks
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing ~16.7 ~3.5 Drought, flood, heat stress, cyclones
Construction 37.6 7.9 Extreme heat (worker safety), flood damage, supply chain disruption
Tourism (direct GVA) 15.7 3.1 Coral bleaching (GBR), cyclones, heatwaves, flood access
Transport and Warehousing ~22.0 ~4.6 Road/rail flood damage, cyclone closures
Accommodation and Food Services ~11.0 ~2.3 Cyclones, floods, bushfires
Total climate-exposed ~103 ~21.4

Source: Author calculations from QLD Treasury, ABS, and TRA data. Mining (12.9% of GVA) has moderate climate exposure through water supply constraints, heat stress, and transport disruption but is not included in the “very high/high” total above.

Including mining would bring the total climate-exposed share to approximately 34 per cent of Queensland’s GVA.

3.3 Industry Growth Drivers, 2024–25

Strongest industry contributors to Queensland GSP growth, 2024–25

Industry Growth (%)
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing +10.0
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services +4.2
Construction +3.1
Mining -3.8

Source: ABS State Accounts 2024–25 via DFAT QLD fact sheet. Agriculture’s 10% growth was driven by favourable weather conditions increasing crop and livestock production.

4. Queensland Agricultural Production

4.1 Total Agricultural Value

Queensland primary industries gross value of production (GVP)

Financial Year GVP ($B) Notes
2019–20 ~17.0 Pre-COVID baseline
2020–21 ~19.0 Recovery from drought
2021–22 23.37 Record at the time
2022–23 23.44 New record; $22.1B excl. forestry/fishing
2023–24 22.10 Third highest; -10% from previous year
2024–25 (f) 23.56–26.79 Forecast: second highest to new record

Source: QLD AgTrends (QLD Department of Primary Industries); QLD Government media statements. The 2024–25 range reflects the initial AgTrends forecast ($23.56B) and a later updated forecast ($26.79B, +18% on 2023–24).

4.2 Key Commodity Values

Queensland top agricultural commodities, 2023–24

Commodity GVP ($B) QLD Share of National Production
Cattle and calves 5.71 45% of national herd
Sugarcane 2.06 96% of national production
Cotton (raw) ~1.5 22% of national production
Fruit and vegetables (selected) ~3.0 Bananas 94%, macadamias 68%, avocados 43%
Meat processing ~2.8 Linked to cattle, second-stage value
Sugarcane + sugar processing (combined) ~2.5 Integrated supply chain

Source: QLD AgTrends 2023–24; QLD Government Ministerial Media Statement (August 2024); QLD Department of Primary Industries data. In 2022–23, cattle and calves were valued at over $6B; beef remains Queensland’s single most valuable commodity.

Queensland production shares of national output (2023–24):

  • 45% of cattle herd
  • 96% of sugar cane
  • 22% of cotton
  • 94% of bananas
  • 68% of macadamias
  • 70% of sweetcorn
  • 61% of lemons and limes
  • 53% of fresh beans and capsicums
  • 46% of mangoes
  • 43% of avocados

Source: QLD Department of Primary Industries.

4.3 Agriculture as Share of GSP

Agriculture, forestry and fishing accounts for approximately 3.5 per cent of Queensland’s GVA — but this understates its economic significance. Including downstream processing (meat, sugar, cotton ginning), transport, and services, the broader agricultural supply chain contributes an estimated 6–8 per cent of Queensland’s total economic activity. Queensland produces almost one-quarter of Australia’s total agricultural output.

5. Queensland Tourism

5.1 Tourism Contribution to GSP

Queensland tourism economic contribution, 2023–24

Measure Value % of GSP
Direct tourism GVA $15.6–15.7B 3.1%
Indirect tourism contribution $16.1B 3.2%
Total tourism contribution $31.7–31.8B 6.3%
Direct tourism employment 156,000 jobs —
QLD share of national tourism output — 23.8%

Source: Tourism Research Australia State Tourism Satellite Account (year ended June 2023); Tourism & Events Queensland Tourism Economic Key Facts (March 2025 and September 2025 updates); QLD Treasury.

5.2 Great Barrier Reef Tourism

Great Barrier Reef tourism economic contribution, 2024

Measure Value
Direct tourism spending $6.4B
— of which domestic $4.48B (70%)
— of which international $1.92B (30%)
Total annual economic contribution (broader) $7.9B
Daily contribution to QLD economy $17.5M
Employment (direct + indirect) 64,000+ jobs
QLD leisure tourism linked to Reef ~30%

Source: Great Barrier Reef Outlook Report 2024 (GBRMPA); Great Barrier Reef Foundation “Value of the Reef” report 2024.

The GBR’s total assessed value (including non-use values — cultural, existence, bequest) was estimated at $95 billion in a 2024 report commissioned by the Great Barrier Reef Foundation. However, for GSP accounting purposes, the direct tourism GVA of $6.4 billion is the relevant figure.

5.3 Tourism Climate Vulnerability

Queensland tourism is directly exposed to climate change through multiple channels:

  • Coral bleaching: Mass bleaching events (2016, 2017, 2020, 2022, 2024, 2025) threaten the GBR’s appeal and $6.4B in direct tourism spend.
  • Cyclones: Cyclone impacts on resort infrastructure (Whitsundays, Far North QLD) disrupt visitor flows.
  • Extreme heat: Increasing frequency of extreme heat days in inland and northern Queensland affects visitor comfort and outdoor activity.
  • Flooding: Road access disruptions to tourist destinations (Daintree, outback QLD) reduce visitation.

6. Disaster Costs as a Share of GSP

6.1 Queensland’s Disaster Cost Burden

Queensland natural disaster costs, summary statistics

Metric Value Source
QLD share of national disaster costs 60% Climate Council; Deloitte Access Economics
QLD average annual disaster cost (past decade) ~$11B Deloitte Access Economics
QRA cumulative disaster program (2011–2025) $29B QRA Annual Report 2024–25
Estimated total QLD disaster costs (2010–2025) $50–70B Author synthesis (see below)

6.2 Disaster Costs Relative to GSP

Disaster costs as percentage of Queensland GSP

Period / Event Disaster Cost ($B) QLD GSP ($B) Cost as % of GSP
2010–11 (floods + Yasi) ~16 ~275 ~5.8%
Annual average (2011–2025, QRA only) ~2.1 ~400 (avg) ~0.5%
Annual average (total economic cost) ~4–5 ~400 (avg) ~1.0–1.3%
2022 (SE QLD floods) ~5+ ~425 ~1.2%
Projected 2050 (annual) 18 ~800 (proj.) ~2.3%
National average (all Australia, 10yr to 2016) 18.2 1,600 (GDP) 1.2%

Source: Author calculations using disaster cost data from Deloitte Access Economics, QRA, ICA, World Bank; GSP data from ABS/DFAT. The 2010–11 cost (~A$16B) is based on the World Bank assessment of US$15.9B in total damages and economic losses.

Key findings:

  1. In a bad year, disaster costs can reach 5–6 per cent of GSP. The 2010–11 floods and Cyclone Yasi cost approximately $16 billion (World Bank estimate), against a nominal GSP of approximately $275 billion — roughly 5.8 per cent of annual economic output.

  2. On average, disaster costs run at approximately 1.0–1.3 per cent of GSP. With total economic costs averaging approximately $4–5 billion per year and average GSP over the period of approximately $400 billion, the ongoing disaster cost burden is around 1.0–1.3 per cent of GSP. This is consistent with the national average of 1.2 per cent of GDP reported by Deloitte Access Economics.

  3. The ratio is projected to worsen. Deloitte projects Queensland’s annual disaster costs reaching $18 billion by 2050 (growing at 3.3 per cent per year). If GSP grows at 4–5 per cent nominal, the disaster cost share remains approximately 2.0–2.5 per cent of GSP — nearly double the current level.

  4. GSP growth is directly impaired in disaster years. The 2010–11 floods reduced Queensland’s real GSP growth to 0.2 per cent, approximately 2–3 percentage points below trend. This represents approximately $5–8 billion in foregone output on top of direct damage costs.

6.3 Major Disaster Events and Economic Impact

Queensland’s costliest natural disaster events since 2010

Event Year Estimated Cost ($B) GSP Impact
QLD floods (widespread) 2010–11 ~10 GSP growth fell to 0.2%
Cyclone Yasi 2011 ~3.6 Combined with floods above
North QLD monsoon 2019 ~5.7 457,000 cattle killed
SE QLD / Northern Rivers floods 2022 ~5+ 300,000+ insurance claims
QLD storms (Dec 2023 – Jan 2024) 2023–24 1.33 ~100,000 insurance claims
Western QLD floods 2025 ~1.5+ 8,500 km exclusion fencing destroyed

Source: World Bank (2010–11); ICA; Deloitte Access Economics; QRA; QLD Country Life. Note: 2010–11 floods and Cyclone Yasi costs overlap; combined total is ~$16B including all direct and indirect economic losses.

6.4 Insurance Cost Escalation

Insurance cost indicators, Queensland

Metric Value Source
National premium increase (5 years) +51% Choice / ACCC
QLD average home insurance premium $3,853 Choice (2025)
North QLD average premium $2,918 Australia Institute
NQ premium vs national average +60–64% ACCC Northern Australia Report
QLD uninsured households (North QLD) ~20% ACCC
Properties projected uninsurable by 2030 6.5% of QLD properties Climate Council
Insurer payouts 2022 + 2023 combined >$10B ICA (national, QLD-dominant)

Source: Choice (2025); ACCC Northern Australia Insurance Inquiry (2020); Climate Council “State of Queensland: Disaster Ground Zero”; ICA; Australia Institute.

7. Summary Statistics for Climate Economics Context

Queensland economy at a glance, 2024–25

Indicator Value
Nominal GSP $531 billion
Real GSP growth 2.2%
Share of national GDP 19.1%
Population 5.67 million
GSP per capita $94,506
Largest industry (by GVA) Mining (12.9%)
Agriculture GVP ~$23–27 billion
Tourism (direct + indirect) ~$32 billion (6.3% of GSP)
Climate-exposed sectors (excl. mining) ~21% of GVA
Climate-exposed sectors (incl. mining) ~34% of GVA
Average annual disaster costs ~$4–5 billion (~1% of GSP)
Disaster costs in extreme year (2010–11) ~$16 billion (~5.8% of GSP)

Sources

Official Statistical Sources

  • ABS, Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, 2024–25 financial year (Cat. 5220.0), released November 2025. abs.gov.au
  • ABS, National, State and Territory Population, June 2025. abs.gov.au
  • DFAT, Queensland Country Economic Fact Sheet, 2024–25. dfat.gov.au
  • QGSO, Economic Activity: State Accounts. qgso.qld.gov.au
  • QGSO, Economic Activity: Queensland State Accounts. qgso.qld.gov.au
  • QLD Treasury, Queensland’s Economy. treasury.qld.gov.au

Budget and Policy Sources

  • QLD Government, Budget Strategy and Outlook 2025–26, Budget Paper No. 2. budget.qld.gov.au
  • QLD Government, Budget 2025–26: Economic Performance and Outlook. budget.qld.gov.au

Agriculture Sources

Tourism Sources

  • Tourism & Events Queensland, Tourism Economic Key Facts, updated March 2025 and September 2025. teq.queensland.com
  • Tourism Research Australia, State Tourism Satellite Account. tra.gov.au
  • GBRMPA, Great Barrier Reef Outlook Report 2024, Section 6.2.1: Economic Growth. outlookreport.gbrmpa.gov.au
  • Great Barrier Reef Foundation, “Value of the Reef” (2024). barrierreef.org

Disaster Cost Sources

  • Deloitte Access Economics, Building Australia’s Resilience to Natural Disasters (2017). deloitte.com
  • Australian Business Roundtable for Disaster Resilience and Safer Communities, The Economic Cost of the Social Impact of Natural Disasters (2016). australianbusinessroundtable.com.au
  • IAG / Deloitte, “Natural disasters estimated to cost Australia $73 billion per year by 2060.” iag.com.au
  • World Bank, Queensland Recovery and Reconstruction in the Aftermath of the 2010/2011 Flood Events and Cyclone Yasi. documents.worldbank.org
  • Climate Council, State of Queensland: Disaster Ground Zero. climatecouncil.org.au
  • Australia Institute, Premium Price: The Impact of Climate Change on Insurance Costs (2024). australiainstitute.org.au

Other Sources

  • CEIC Data, Australia GDP: Queensland and GDP per Capita: Queensland. ceicdata.com
  • RBA, “The Economic Performance of the States,” Bulletin, March 2015. rba.gov.au
  • RBA, “The Recent Economic Performance of the States,” Bulletin, March 2017. rba.gov.au
  • Hawkins, J., “New data shows the ACT and Queensland economies are beating the rest of the nation,” The Conversation, 2025. theconversation.com
  • QTC, Queensland’s Economy and Trade. qtc.com.au