Chatter

analysis
LCOE
Author

David Leitch

Published

December 9, 2024

5 December

At Carl Daley at Wattclarity points out that the last week of November is often when price spikes occur. The only explanation I can think of is that November is when coal generators do maintenance and weather is a bitt hotter than in the main part of Spring so demand can be relatively elevated. Demand in NSW never got with in 10% of its all time record but there were certainly price spikes. The following figure, done in a hurry as I am off to Hospital in an hour for a long standing valve leak repair, shows NSW 5 minute prices for most of this year(or as long as I’ve been downloading the data.)

Until there are more batteries online I expect to see these 5 minute price spikes continue. They certainly push up average prices.

NSW 5 minute prices, Source: Nemweb

NSW 5 minute prices, Source: Nemweb

29 Nov

The new CEC Board is a bunch of industry heavyweights including CEOs of Squadron, Iberdrola Australia and Acciona Renewables head Australia.

Despite its work on standards and despite its leading conference I have long felt that the CEC has been losing ground to Smart Energy as the main tempo of the industry. Smart Energy takes stronger positions and is generally more aggressive in its marketing. Attendance at its exhibition/conference is free which is in contrast to the CEFC summit. All Energy equally remains free to visitors.

There are therefore at least three organisations committed in part to lobbying and developing policy, the CEC, Smart Energy and the Clean Energy Investor Group(CEIG). There now seems to be considerable overlap between the CEC and CEIG.

Given that CEC Board positions were heavily contested this year I expect to see some change in the CEC focus and activity over time.

To me it looks like the CEC is increasingly going to be the big end of the industry and Smart Energy is going to be the organisation for everyone else. That’s already been the case I guess for a while but looks to be even more so.

29 Sep

Please to report my latest monthly electricity and petrol bill zero, in fact my retailer stated they owe me $29 which will be applied to the next bill. Despite the cost I expect that attachment rates of batteries to new solar systems is increasing.

Disappointingly even though utility and car battery prices are clearly coming down and in some cases coming down quickly residential batteries have basically been flat for 6 years. At least according to comparison site Solar Choice:

1 Sep

Going forward articles will include a comments section. No login is required at this stage as the traffic volume is expected to be low. Comments are generally welcome. I get some email feedback on my articles, the vast majority of which is quite value adding. It seems to me that in many cases that feedback would often do more good being in a comment for others to read.

23 Aug

ITK’s price forecasts are coming soonish.

7 Aug

Updating some previous numbers the going rate for a 6 MW wind turbine seems about $60k per year. So the 54 turbines of Doughboy windfarm that 9 landowners turned down is about $3.2 m or $97 m over 30 years. Lots of money to give up for any reason. Things must be good in the bush although my understanding 6/9 potential hosts weren’t even residents.

19 July

Whitehaven reported coal production costs of A$114/t. Price received for NSW thermal coal of US$137/t (A$210/t). That’s likely for top quality thermal coal (26 gj/t) but even so translating that back to NSW coal generation for say Eraring gives 9.5 GJ/MWh * 210 / 26 = $76/MWh fuel cost.

8 Jun 24 78

Am emerging leading light in understanding social cohesion and division in the transition is Associate Professor Rebecca Colvin.

“So, for instance, quite a bit of research has shown that Australia is the second most polarised country on climate change along left-right political lines, with the US being the most polarised country.”

100climateconversations

A topical quote considering todays headlines that the LNP is more or less turning its back on Paris commitments.

5 Jun 24

A reminder tha there are 20 GW of wind and solar operating

And the total is set to grow 30% based on projects under construction, although Rye Park 400 MW wind could now be regarded as operating reducing the growth rate.

3 Jun 24

CIS scheme webinar

  • Not a lot of real news but well attended plenty of Q&A. In response to my question about will it get new capacity built there seems to be a general focus rather than specific provisions. Ie choosing projects that are capable and will be built. Comes down to who is doing the administering.
  • Focus on getting the right number of bidders as the assement process will take months, and too many will slow it down.