Electrifying Australia’s Diesel Fleet

From diesel replacement priorities to the Sydney–Melbourne corridor

David Leitch

2026-03-25

Part 1: Prioritising Diesel Replacement

Full electrification redirects ~$22 bn/yr from petroleum imports to domestic electricity (~1% of GDP)
90 Mt CO2 reduction (~15% of national emissions)
At AER shadow price of $176/t CO2 → ~$15 bn in welfare gains
NPV at 5% bond rate: ~$750 bn

FTCS cost $7.8 bn in FY 2022–23 (larger than Commonwealth hospital spend)
Mining claims 45% ($3.5 bn) — coal miners alone ~$1.7 bn/yr
Reduces the fuel cost advantage of electrification by ~30%
Reform options: phase-down for mining, electrification offset, carbon-linked reduction

22 Mt/yr of freight travels the 900 km corridor (~1.2 bn freight-km)
Full electrification saves ~$0.9 bn/yr in fuel costs
Total capex to electrify: ~$4 bn → payback under 5 years
Incremental capex (charging + vehicle premium): ~$2.5 bn → payback under 3 years

Every km: $0.70 cheaper than diesel

Charging infrastructure on the Hume Highway — 6–12 purpose-built stations
Grid connections at logistics hubs (Moorebank, Somerton)
Standards alignment — MCS connectors and 1,250V DC systems
Policy nudge — the economics are compelling, but capital needs to be mobilised

Tesla production: Target 50k/yr — but every prior deadline missed by years (promised 2019, first units Dec 2022; promised 50k in 2024, delivered ~200)
Weight gap: Tesla rated at 37t — below a standard AU semi (42.5t), let alone a 68t B-double. No AU plans announced
Windrose in AU: 480 km delivery at 36t completed via NET — but full 68t B-double payload + range not yet publicly validated
Both trucks carry a ~3,000 kg weight penalty vs diesel — less of an issue on Sydney–Melbourne where most freight cubes out before it weighs out

The economics are outstanding.

The need is obvious.

An absolute no brainer.

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