Electrifying Australia’s Diesel Fleet

From diesel replacement priorities to the Sydney–Melbourne corridor

David Leitch

2026-03-25

Part 1: Prioritising Diesel Replacement

The prize

  • Full electrification redirects ~$22 bn/yr from petroleum imports to domestic electricity (~1% of GDP)
  • 90 Mt CO2 reduction (~15% of national emissions)
  • At AER shadow price of $176/t CO2 → ~$15 bn in welfare gains
  • NPV at 5% bond rate: ~$750 bn

Three priority sectors

Policy scorecard