Diesel Electrification Note: Next Steps

Completed sections

  1. Summary — headline diesel budget framing
  2. Transport Emissions by Sub-Sector — CCA 90 Mt breakdown (Table T.1)
  3. Road Transport Diesel: By Vehicle Type — ABS SMVU 2020 full table
  4. Road Transport Diesel: By State — ABS SMVU 2020 state breakdown
  5. Off-Road Diesel — mining, agriculture, construction estimates
  6. Total Diesel Budget — combined ~30 BL table
  7. Electrification Implications — sector-by-sector framing
  8. Trucks: The Largest Road Diesel Consumer — weight class + area of operation + electrification implications
  9. International Comparison — China, EU, UK, Australia, Vietnam
  10. Charging Infrastructure for Heavy Trucks — battery-swap vs MCS vs Tesla Megacharger vs Windrose
  11. Long-Haul Electric Trucks: The Contenders — eActros 600, Volvo FH Aero/FH Electric, Scania R 450e, DAF, Windrose E1400, Tesla Semi, B-double problem
  12. Bus Kilometres by State — ABS SMVU 2020
  13. Light Commercial Vehicles — PHEV utes, BEV utes, electric vans (eSprinter, E-Transit, E-Transit Custom reviews), barriers, UK/EU as leading indicators, policy levers
  14. Data Gaps — 8 items
  15. European sales: who is winning? — EU ZE truck registrations 2025 rankings table (eActros 600 #1)

Separate background documents

  • etruck_economics.md — diesel consumption per km, electric equivalent kWh/km, operating cost $/km, payback periods for all 11 vehicle classes plus mining (Section 11). Includes summary table, diesel-to-electricity conversion analysis, policy prioritisation scorecard, and China NE commercial vehicle validation data.

Remaining work

Content gaps to fill

  • Mining electrification — DONE, added as Section 11 to etruck_economics.md. Covers 9.6 BL diesel budget, equipment breakdown, BEV haul trucks (Cat 793 XE, Liebherr T 264, XCMG), trolley-assist, underground BEV (Sandvik, Epiroc), Australian deployments (Fortescue, BHP, Rio Tinto)
  • Agricultural electrification — electric tractors (Monarch, John Deere SESAM), solar+battery for irrigation, timeline
  • Hydrogen vs battery for long-haul — brief treatment of FCEV trucks (Hyundai XCIENT, Nikola Tre FCEV), likely role for road trains >100t
  • Policy comparison table — Australia vs EU vs China vs US policy instruments side by side
  • Policy prioritisation scorecard — DONE, added to etruck_economics.md

Charts to create

  • Treemap of 30 BL total diesel budget (already have PNG 1 from diesel_drilldown_charts.py)
  • Truck diesel by weight class (already have PNG 2)
  • Consider: stacked area chart of projected BEV truck share by segment to 2040

Editorial

  • Review all sections for consistent citation style
  • Cross-check all numbers against primary sources
  • Run through research-standards checklist
  • Remove draft: true from YAML when ready to publish