Queensland Climate Change: Drought Risk and Tropical Cyclone Projections

Physical Climate Science Projections

Compiled: 10 March 2026

Executive Summary

Queensland faces a future of intensifying drought severity and shifting tropical cyclone patterns. While total cyclone numbers are projected to decline, the cyclones that do form will be more intense, slower-moving, and tracking further south — with Cyclone Alfred (2025) providing a vivid case study. Drought risk is increasing not because of reduced rainfall alone, but because warming temperatures dramatically accelerate moisture loss through evapotranspiration, making droughts more severe even in regions where rainfall holds steady.

Key findings:

Warming has increased drought severity by 40% globally through increased atmospheric evaporative demand, and this trend will continue under future warming (Nature, 2025)
Jet stream shifts have moved rain-bearing weather systems away from southern Australia, contributing to at least 25% less annual rainfall in southern regions (Feb 2026 research)
Tropical cyclone frequency is projected to decrease ~8-13%, but the proportion of Category 4-5 storms is increasing (medium confidence)
Cyclones are tracking southward and slowing, delivering more total rainfall over longer periods
Cyclone Alfred (2025) — the first tropical cyclone to hit Brisbane since 1974 — demonstrated multiple climate change signals: record Coral Sea SSTs, intensified rainfall, and slow movement
Fire weather seasons are lengthening across Queensland, with southern QLD experiencing the most pronounced increases

1. Drought: Projected Changes

1.1 Warming-Accelerated Drought Severity

A landmark 2025 study in Nature found that increased atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) has increased drought severity by an average of 40% globally — across both typically dry and wet regions:

During 2018–2022, areas in drought expanded by 74% compared to 1981–2017
AED contributed to 58% of this expansion
In 2022, 30% of global land area was affected by moderate-to-extreme drought, with 42% attributable to increased AED
The mechanism: warming increases the atmosphere’s capacity to extract moisture from soil and vegetation, acting as “an invisible sponge” that dries landscapes even when rainfall doesn’t decline

This finding is critical for Queensland: drought severity increases with warming regardless of rainfall trends. Even if total rainfall holds steady, hotter temperatures mean faster soil drying, greater plant water stress, and more rapid onset of drought conditions.

Source: Nature (2025) — Warming accelerates global drought severity; Oxford University — Earth’s growing thirst

1.2 Flash Drought

Flash droughts — rapid-onset droughts amplified by extreme heat — are a growing concern. A 2025 study in Nature Geoscience found that flash drought impacts on global ecosystems are amplified by extreme heat, with compound drought-heat events becoming more frequent and more damaging to vegetation and agriculture.

For Queensland, where temperatures have risen 1.5 degrees C since 1910, the risk of rapid drought onset during heatwave events is increasing. The 2019 North Queensland situation illustrated this: extreme heat compounded an already severe drought, weakening cattle that were then killed by the February monsoon trough flooding.

Source: Nature Geoscience (2025) — Flash drought impacts amplified by extreme heat

1.3 Jet Stream Shifts and Southern Australian Drought

Research published in February 2026 established a direct link between upper atmospheric changes and Australian drought:

Jet streams have shifted 8-10 km above ground level, moving further southward
This drags rain-bearing winter weather systems away from Australia’s southern coastline
Southern Australia has experienced at least 25% less annual rainfall as a result
The two most recent southern Australian droughts were the Tinderbox drought (2017–2019) and the current drought (2023–present, continuing into February 2026)
Between 2023 and 2025, almost all of southern Australia experienced serious to extreme rainfall deficits
December 2025 to February 2026 brought extreme heat and record low rainfall

While this research primarily describes southern Australia (relevant to Southern Queensland), the mechanism — poleward displacement of mid-latitude weather systems — is consistent with the broader pattern of dry-season rainfall decline projected for Queensland under climate change.

Source: Phys.org (Feb 2026) — Dramatic changes in upper atmosphere responsible for recent droughts and bushfires; The Conversation — Upper atmosphere and droughts; UTS News (Feb 2026)

1.4 Queensland-Specific Drought Projections

Drawing on the Queensland Future Climate Science Program and CSIRO/BoM State of the Climate 2024:

Aspect	Projection	Confidence
May–October (dry season) rainfall	Decline across QLD	Medium
Annual rainfall direction	Uncertain (monsoon regions)	Low
Hot days (>35 degrees C)	Sixfold increase since 1960–89 baseline	Observed
Evapotranspiration	Increasing with temperature	High
Compound drought-heat events	More frequent, more severe	High
Time in drought	Increasing, especially in winter/spring	Medium-to-high

The CSIRO/BoM State of the Climate 2024 notes: “Cool season rainfall has continued to decrease across many regions of southern and eastern Australia, leading to more time in drought” (high confidence).

Source: BoM/CSIRO — State of the Climate 2024; Queensland Future Climate

1.5 Groundwater and Water Supply

Queensland’s water supply reliability faces multiple pressures:

Some Southeast Queensland catchments may shift from “Wet” to “Semi-arid” climate regime by 2050
Dam inflows may decline 10% in some river basins (Burdekin, Fitzroy, Burnett)
However, lower average rainfall also means more empty dam storage available to capture extreme events
The net effect on water supply security remains a key uncertainty

2. Fire Weather and Drought Compound Events

2.1 Observed Trends

Analysis of Queensland fire weather trends (1950–2018) reveals clear climate-driven shifts:

Maximum temperatures have risen across most of the state
Fire danger days are intensifying statewide, with southern Queensland experiencing the most pronounced increases
The fire season now commences earlier and extends later in some regions
The inactive period for fire weather is narrowing through different mechanisms across regions — earlier starts in some areas, delayed conclusions in others
Coastal areas experienced declining rainfall, though far western and northern zones saw increases

2.2 Recent Events

2023–24 season: Required 40+ aircraft and 1,000 evacuations
2019 Black Summer: $69.9 million in insured losses across affected QLD communities
Current drought (2023–2026): Extreme heat and record low rainfall in summer 2025–26 creating catastrophic bushfire conditions across southern Australia

2.3 Projections

The Queensland State of the Environment 2024 states that “observed trends are likely to continue”, indicating accelerating fire weather severity. The compound effect of declining dry-season rainfall, rising temperatures, and longer fire seasons creates a feedback loop: drier conditions → more fire → degraded vegetation → reduced water retention → more severe subsequent droughts.

Source: QLD State of Environment 2024 — Fire weather; BoM/CSIRO — State of the Climate 2024

3. Tropical Cyclones: Frequency Projections

3.1 The “Fewer but Fiercer” Consensus

The scientific consensus on tropical cyclone frequency changes for Australia is:

Aspect	Projection	Confidence	Source
Overall frequency	Decrease ~8-13%	Medium	IPCC AR6
Proportion of Cat 4-5	Increase	Low-to-medium	IPCC AR6
Rapid intensification events	More frequent	Likely (IPCC)	IPCC AR6
Overall risk per event	Increasing	High	Multiple

A study published in Nature Climate Change found that Australia has experienced a “greater decline” in tropical cyclone frequency since the 1950s when global warming accelerated. Globally, TC numbers decreased by approximately 13% comparing 1900–2000 against 1850–1900.

3.2 Scientific Disagreement on Frequency

There is ongoing debate about historical frequency trends:

NESP Climate Systems Hub researchers: Contend that frequency has genuinely declined, with robust century-scale datasets supporting this
Professor Kerry Emanuel (MIT): Challenges the adequacy of century-scale historical datasets, arguing they undercount storms
Both agree that individual cyclones are becoming more hazardous through higher sea levels, increased rainfall intensity, and stronger peak wind speeds

Source: NESP Climate Systems Hub — Will we get less tropical cyclones?; Nature Climate Change — Declining tropical cyclone frequency

3.3 Recent Queensland Activity

Despite the long-term frequency decline projection, Queensland experienced significant tropical cyclone activity in 2020–2024:

8 severe tropical cyclones between January 2020 and April 2024
TC Jasper (2023, Cat 4 peak) — slow-moving, extraordinary rainfall, devastating floods
TC Kirrily (2024, Cat 3 peak)
Tropical Low 16U (2023) — record-breaking floods in northwest Queensland
TC Alfred (2025) — first cyclone to hit Brisbane since 1974

The QLD State of Environment assessment notes: “Tropical cyclones are travelling slower and southward”, with “increasing rainfall intensity giving rise to potentially extreme associated flooding.”

Source: QLD State of Environment 2024 — Severe weather events

4. Tropical Cyclones: Intensity and Behaviour Changes

4.1 Intensification

The IPCC AR6 concludes: “It is likely that the proportion of major TC intensities and the frequency of rapid intensification events have both increased globally over the past 40 years.”

Between 1979 and 2017, there was a global increase in the proportion of Category 3+ tropical cyclones on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

The Climate Change Authority factsheet states: “Future cyclones may be fewer but stronger, bringing more intense rainfall, damaging winds and dangerous storm surge” and “the amount of heavy precipitation from all weather systems, including tropical cyclones, is likely to increase.”

4.2 Slow-Moving Cyclones

Tropical cyclones are retaining their strength for longer and moving more slowly, meaning they linger over affected areas causing more damage. This pattern was clearly demonstrated by:

TC Jasper (2023): Moved slowly, lasted a long time, brought extraordinary rainfall, stranded communities
TC Alfred (2025): Loitered off the coast for over a week before making landfall

Tropical circulation wind speeds have fallen 5–15% globally due to climate change, contributing to slower cyclone movement.

4.3 Poleward Migration

The latitude at which tropical cyclones reach peak intensity has been expanding poleward globally in recent decades:

IPCC AR6: “It is very likely that the average location where TCs reach their peak wind-intensity has migrated poleward in the western North Pacific Ocean since the 1940s”
The poleward migration of TC genesis and maximum intensity is linked to Hadley Cell expansion under warming
For Queensland, this means southern parts of the state increasingly exposed to tropical cyclone impacts
NESP researchers are investigating whether future cyclones will “move further south, affecting southeastern Queensland, northern New South Wales, and southwestern Western Australia”

Source: Climate Change Authority — Tropical cyclones and climate change factsheet; IPCC AR6 WGI Chapter 11; Nature — Poleward migration of tropical cyclones

5. Case Study: Cyclone Alfred (March 2025)

Cyclone Alfred provides a concrete illustration of how climate change is altering tropical cyclone risk for Queensland.

5.1 Key Facts

First tropical cyclone to hit Brisbane since 1974 — a gap of 51 years
Formed in the Coral Sea where SSTs were at or near record highs (4th highest February, highest January on record)
Unusual westward turn toward Southeast Queensland under subtropical ridge influence
Crossed Moreton Island (~40 km NE of Brisbane) just before midnight on 8 March
Loitered off the coast for over a week before making landfall
NASA described it as “Alfred’s strange and destructive journey”
Among the top ten costliest climate-change-linked disasters of 2025

5.2 Climate Change Attribution

Attributable to climate change (high confidence):

Intensified rainfall: Heavier precipitation ascribed to human-driven climate change; natural variability played a minor role
Record Coral Sea SSTs: Warmer waters providing more fuel for the cyclone
Warm waters extending further south: Climate change is driving warm waters that fuel cyclones further poleward

Linked to climate change but with uncertainty:

Slow movement: Tropical circulation has weakened 5–15% globally due to climate change, which may contribute to slower cyclone movement, but the specific role in Alfred’s case is uncertain
Unusual track: Cannot yet definitively attribute the westward turn to climate change

The Climate Council concluded: “Cyclone Alfred, like so many other extremes across Australia, is more intense and destructive due to climate change.”

CSIRO’s analysis noted: “Climate change is driving very clear trends which can load the dice for more intense cyclones arriving in subtropical regions.”

Source: CSIRO — Climate change and Cyclone Alfred; Climate Council — Cyclone Alfred destruction driven by climate change; NASA Earth Observatory — Alfred’s strange journey; SBS — Cyclone Alfred among costliest disasters; The Conversation — Cyclone Alfred first in 50 years

6. Synthesis: What This Means for Queensland

The Emerging Risk Profile

Queensland is transitioning from a historical climate regime to one characterised by:

Drought: 1. More severe droughts — warming increases drought severity by ~40% through atmospheric evaporative demand, even where rainfall doesn’t decline 2. Longer dry seasons — May-October rainfall declining (medium confidence) 3. More rapid drought onset — flash droughts amplified by extreme heat 4. Jet stream displacement — rain-bearing systems tracking further south, away from southern Queensland 5. Compound drought-fire events — fire seasons lengthening, fire weather intensifying, narrowing recovery windows

Tropical Cyclones: 1. Fewer total cyclones but more intense when they occur 2. Slower movement over affected areas, delivering more total rainfall 3. Southward tracking — exposing SEQ and wider QLD to tropical cyclone impacts 4. More intense rainfall from cyclones — projected +14% median increase 5. Rapid intensification events becoming more common 6. Warm ocean waters extending further south — expanding the zone where cyclones can maintain intensity

The Drought-Cyclone Compound

The worst-case scenario for Queensland — and one supported by evidence from events like 2019 — is the drought-cyclone compound:

Extended drought weakens vegetation, livestock, and soil structure
Intense cyclone or tropical low delivers extreme rainfall to drought-hardened landscapes
Water runs off rather than infiltrating, causing catastrophic flooding
Recovery from both drought AND flood damage simultaneously

This compound risk is projected to intensify as both drought severity and cyclone intensity increase under warming.

Key Uncertainties

Direction of mean annual rainfall change for monsoon-influenced regions
Timeline of tropical cyclone poleward migration reaching Southeast Queensland
Whether the observed southern Australian drought (2023–present) represents a step change or a reversible phase
Interaction between ENSO, IOD, and tropical cyclone activity under warming
Flash drought prediction capability