Queensland’s Climate Economic Exposure: Trends, Current State, and Projections to 2050
Combined Reference Document — 10 March 2026
Overview
This document integrates evidence from four research streams — disaster costs, climate projections, Great Barrier Reef science, and Queensland economic data — to present a quantitative picture of Queensland’s climate economic exposure. The focus is analytical: what the data shows about historical trends, the current state of play, and the forward-looking economic implications to mid-century.
Queensland is Australia’s most climate-exposed state economy. It experiences approximately 60 per cent of the nation’s natural disasters, its $95 billion reef asset faces accelerating bleaching, and over one-fifth of its gross value added is in industries directly vulnerable to extreme weather. The economic evidence shows these costs are rising, both in absolute terms and as a share of economic output.
1. The Queensland Economy: Baseline
Queensland’s economy reached a nominal Gross State Product (GSP) of $531 billion in 2024–25, making it Australia’s third-largest state economy (19.1 per cent of national GDP). The state’s population of 5.67 million generates a GSP per capita of $94,506.
Growth trajectory
Queensland’s long-run average real GSP growth is approximately 3.0–3.5 per cent per annum. The QLD Budget 2025–26 forecasts growth moderating to 2.5–2.75 per cent through 2028–29.
| Financial Year | QLD Real GSP Growth (%) | National GDP Growth (%) | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010–11 | 0.2 | 2.2 | Floods + TC Yasi |
| 2013–14 | 3.5 | 2.6 | Above trend |
| 2019–20 | -1.1 | -0.3 | COVID-19 |
| 2021–22 | 5.5 | 3.7 | Strong recovery |
| 2022–23 | 2.3 | 2.1 | Normalisation |
| 2023–24 | 1.7 | 1.5 | Below trend |
| 2024–25 | 2.2 | 1.4 | QLD outperforms |
Source: ABS State Accounts 2024–25; DFAT QLD fact sheet; QLD Budget 2025–26 BP2.
The 2010–11 figure is telling: floods and Cyclone Yasi reduced growth to 0.2 per cent — approximately 2–3 percentage points below trend, implying $5–8 billion in foregone output on top of direct damage costs.
Climate-exposed sectors
| Sector | GVA ($B) | % of GSP | Key Climate Risks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing | ~16.7 | ~3.5 | Drought, flood, heat stress, cyclones |
| Construction | 37.6 | 7.9 | Extreme heat, flood damage, supply chain |
| Tourism (direct GVA) | 15.7 | 3.1 | Coral bleaching, cyclones, heatwaves |
| Transport and Warehousing | ~22.0 | ~4.6 | Road/rail flood damage, cyclone closures |
| Accommodation and Food Services | ~11.0 | ~2.3 | Cyclones, floods, bushfires |
| Total (high exposure) | ~103 | ~21.4 |
Source: QLD Treasury, ABS State Accounts, Tourism Research Australia. Including mining (12.9% of GVA, moderate exposure) brings the total to ~34% of GVA.
These are not marginal sectors. Agriculture produces almost one-quarter of Australia’s total output (cattle $5.71B, sugarcane $2.06B, 96% of national sugar). Tourism contributes $31.8 billion to GSP when indirect effects are included (6.3% of total GSP). The Great Barrier Reef alone supports 77,000 FTE jobs.
2. Historical Disaster Costs
The scale
The total economic cost of major flood, cyclone, and drought events in Queensland since 2010 is conservatively estimated at $50–70 billion:
| Category | Estimated Cost | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Road and public infrastructure (QRA managed) | $29 billion | Cumulative 2011–2025 |
| Emergency water infrastructure (Millennium Drought) | $6.9 billion | SEQ Water Grid, desalination |
| Livestock losses (2019 + 2025 floods) | $6+ billion | Deloitte $5.68B for 2019 alone |
| Uninsured property and business losses | $5–10 billion | 30–50% insured-to-total cost ratio |
| Agricultural production losses | $3–4 billion | QLD share of $1.1B/year national loss |
| Government drought assistance | $670 million | Since 2013 |
Source: QRA, Deloitte Access Economics, ABARES, ICA, QLD Government. Categories overlap.
The trend: accelerating
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| QRA active program, first 5 years (2011–16) | ~$15 billion |
| QRA active program, latest 5 years (2020–25) | $14.2 billion across 58 events |
| Events activated 2024–25 | 17 (highest on record) |
| LGAs activated 2024–25 | 73 of 77 (most widespread ever) |
National disaster costs have risen from approximately $18 billion in 2017 to $38 billion in 2024, with Queensland bearing roughly 60 per cent of the burden.
Major events since 2010
| Event | Year | Total Economic Cost ($B) | Insured Losses ($B) |
|---|---|---|---|
| QLD Floods + TC Yasi | 2010–11 | ~14.1 | 3.5 |
| TC Debbie | 2017 | ~3.5 | 1.74 |
| NQ Monsoon Trough | 2019 | ~5.68 | 1.24 |
| SE QLD Floods | 2022 | ~7.7 | 5.56 |
| TC Jasper | 2023 | ~1.0 | 0.74 |
| Ex-TC Alfred | 2025 | ~1.8–2.7 | 1.5 |
Source: ICA, Deloitte Access Economics, QRA, World Bank.
In every case, insured losses represent only 30–50 per cent of total economic costs. The gap falls on individual property owners, businesses, and taxpayers through government recovery programs.
3. Disaster Costs in GSP Context
This is the central analytical question: how large are disaster costs relative to the economy that bears them, and is the ratio worsening?
Historical ratio
| Period / Event | Disaster Cost ($B) | QLD GSP ($B) | Cost as % of GSP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010–11 (floods + Yasi) | ~16 | ~275 | ~5.8% |
| Annual average (total economic, 2011–25) | ~4–5 | ~400 (avg) | ~1.0–1.3% |
| 2022 (SE QLD floods) | ~5+ | ~425 | ~1.2% |
| Annual average (QRA program only) | ~2.1 | ~400 (avg) | ~0.5% |
Source: Author calculations from Deloitte, QRA, ICA, World Bank, ABS.
The ongoing burden of approximately 1.0–1.3 per cent of GSP is substantial. For context, this is roughly equivalent to the entire agriculture sector’s direct contribution to GVA (3.5%). In the extreme year of 2010–11, disaster costs consumed the equivalent of almost 6 per cent of GSP.
The forward projection
Deloitte Access Economics projects Queensland’s annual disaster costs reaching approximately $18 billion by 2050, growing at 3.3 per cent per year. Against projected GSP:
| Year | Projected Disaster Cost ($B/yr) | Projected Nominal GSP ($B) | Cost as % of GSP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 (current) | ~5 | ~531 | ~1.0% |
| 2035 | ~7–8 | ~700 | ~1.0–1.1% |
| 2050 | ~18 | ~800–1,000 | ~1.8–2.3% |
Source: Deloitte/IAG disaster cost projections; GSP trajectory assumes 2.5% real growth + 2% inflation (~4.5% nominal). Higher disaster cost scenarios from the Climate Council project government spending 7x higher by 2090 under 3-degree warming.
The ratio nearly doubles by mid-century. This means disaster costs will grow faster than the economy — an increasing drag on prosperity. And these are average annual figures; individual extreme years would be substantially worse.
4. The Climate Trajectory Driving These Costs
The climate projections explain why costs are accelerating and are expected to continue doing so.
What is changing
| Aspect | Direction | Confidence | Implication for Costs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme rainfall intensity | +15%/degree C | High | Worse flooding per event |
| Drought severity | +40% from warming | High | Greater agricultural losses |
| Cyclone intensity | Increasing (Cat 4–5 share) | Medium | Higher per-event damage |
| Cyclone tracks | Moving south | Medium | New exposure for SEQ |
| Marine heatwaves | More frequent, longer | High | Accelerating GBR decline |
| Dry season rainfall | Decreasing | Medium | Extended fire seasons, water stress |
| Sea level | Rising, accelerating (4 cm/decade) | Very high | Compound coastal flooding |
Source: CSIRO/BoM State of the Climate 2024, IPCC AR6, QLD Future Climate Science Program.
The drought-flood cycle: quantified
This is Queensland’s defining climate risk. The cycle operates across multiple sectors simultaneously:
Roads: 40 per cent of Queensland’s roads (70,000 km) are on black clay soils that shrink in drought and swell when wet. Drought-weakened pavements suffer accelerated deterioration when subsequently flooded — documented in peer-reviewed pavement engineering research.
Cattle: The 2013–2019 drought forced destocking at ~$68 per head; by 2021, restocking cost $1,500+ per head — a 20–25x price swing. The 457,000 cattle killed in the February 2019 monsoon had been weakened by six years of preceding drought.
Fencing: Exclusion fencing costs have tripled in a decade ($5–7k/km to $15–20k/km). The 2025 floods destroyed 8,500 km of exclusion fencing and 12,000 km of internal fencing — much of it built with $91 million in government investment.
Water: The Millennium Drought drove $6.9 billion in emergency water infrastructure. A further $4–8 billion new desalination plant is planned for 2035.
The climate projections confirm this cycle will intensify: drier winters, more intense rainfall events when they occur, warmer temperatures accelerating evapotranspiration. The net effect is wider swings between extremes.
5. The Great Barrier Reef: Economic Trajectory
Current value
| Metric | 2017 | 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset value ($B) | 56 | 95 | +70% |
| Annual economic contribution ($B) | 6.4 | 9.0 | +41% |
| Employment (FTE) | 64,000 | 77,000 | +20% |
| Tourism share of annual contribution | ~$4.5B | $7.9B (88%) | +76% |
Source: Deloitte Access Economics “At What Price?” (2017), “At What Cost?” (2024).
The valuations have grown — but so has the threat.
Bleaching: the acceleration
Eight mass bleaching events in 27 years (1998–2025), with six since 2016. The intervals have collapsed from 14 years (2002–2016) to 1–2 years (2022–2024–2025). Full reef recovery requires 10–15 years; events now occur every 1–2 years.
The 2022 event was a watershed: the first mass bleaching during La Nina — historically the cool phase that protected the reef. The safety net of natural variability has been lost. A 2024 Nature study confirmed current Coral Sea temperatures are the highest in at least 400 years.
Tourism: the data
| Period | Visitors | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 2,620,000 | Recent peak |
| 2019 | 2,400,000 | Pre-pandemic |
| 2020 | 960,000 | COVID (-60%) |
| 2024 | 2,340,000 | ~98% of 2019, below 2017 peak |
Source: GBRMPA Environmental Management Charge data.
Visitor numbers have recovered to near pre-pandemic levels, but the post-2016 plateau is notable — the 2017 peak has not been re-attained. Visitor satisfaction declined significantly between 2013 and 2017. And 69 per cent of tourists are motivated by wanting to see the reef “before it’s gone” — last-chance tourism that may mask underlying decline in appeal.
Economic risk to 2050
Under the Bozec et al. (2025) ReefMod-GBR modelling:
| Warming Level | Coral Outcome | Tourism Implication |
|---|---|---|
| <2 degree C | Partial recovery possible | Tourism value largely preserved |
| 2–3 degree C (most likely) | Most reefs near-collapse | 60% fewer trips under severe degradation |
| >3 degree C | Functional elimination | $7.9B/yr tourism contribution at risk |
The difference between 2 degrees and 3 degrees of warming is not incremental for the GBR economy. At 2 degrees, adaptation keeps pace and partial recovery occurs. At 3 degrees (current trajectory), the reef loses most coral and the tourism proposition degrades materially.
Research estimates that under severe degradation (80% coral loss, 30% diversity loss, 70% fish loss), an average visitor would take 60 per cent fewer trips — corresponding to a decrease in tourism expenditure of approximately $136 million per year in the Marine Park alone, and much larger flow-on losses for regional economies.
6. Insurance: The Market Signal
Insurance markets are providing the clearest price signal of Queensland’s growing climate exposure:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| QLD average home insurance premium | $3,853 (highest state) |
| National premium increase (5 years) | +51% |
| QLD premium increase | +66% |
| North QLD premium vs national average | +60–64% above |
| North QLD uninsured households | ~20% (double national rate) |
| QLD properties projected uninsurable by 2030 | 6.5% |
| Per-household extreme weather cost (2021–22) | $1,532 (+73% on 10-year average) |
Source: CHOICE (2025), ACCC Northern Australia Insurance Inquiry (2020), Actuaries Institute (2024), Climate Council.
The insurance market is failing to provide adequate coverage in Queensland’s most vulnerable communities. Only 1–2 per cent of agriculture is insured against flood. Livestock cover is “virtually non-existent.” The cyclone reinsurance pool (established 2022) has delivered 11–15 per cent premium reductions in high-risk areas, but premiums are still rising overall. Insurers have begun withdrawing from cyclone-prone regions entirely.
7. Projections to 2050: The Compound Picture
Disaster costs
Based on the Deloitte/IAG projections (3.3% annual growth in disaster costs):
- 2025: ~$5B/yr (~1% of GSP)
- 2035: ~$7–8B/yr (~1.1% of GSP)
- 2050: ~$18B/yr (~2.0–2.3% of GSP)
Under the Climate Council’s higher estimate, government spending on disaster recovery alone could be seven times current levels by 2090 under 3 degrees of warming.
GBR economic exposure
The $7.9 billion annual tourism contribution and $95 billion asset value are at risk under warming above 2 degrees. The window for recovery (Bozec et al.) closes around mid-century if emissions remain on the current trajectory (~2.5–3 degrees).
Agricultural exposure
ABARES estimates climate change has already reduced Australian farm profits by an average of 23 per cent. Queensland, with 45 per cent of the national cattle herd, 96 per cent of sugarcane, and extensive horticultural production, is disproportionately exposed. The compounding drought-flood cycle is projected to intensify on both sides — drier dry seasons, more intense wet events.
Infrastructure adaptation costs
Queensland has already committed more than $10 billion in forward water infrastructure investment (new desalination plant, Paradise Dam rebuild, pipeline expansions). The QRA betterment program demonstrates a 4:1 return on resilience investment ($244M invested, $988M in avoided costs). But the scale of future adaptation required far exceeds current commitments.
Combined exposure to 2050
| Risk Category | Current Annual Impact ($B) | Projected 2050 ($B/yr) | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direct disaster costs | ~5 | ~18 | Intensifying extremes |
| GBR tourism at risk | — | 2–5 | Coral degradation under >2 degrees C |
| Agricultural productivity loss | ~1.1 | ~2–3 | Drought severity +40%, heat stress |
| Infrastructure adaptation | ~2 | ~4–6 | Water, roads, energy resilience |
| Insurance gap (uninsured losses) | ~2–3 | ~5–8 | Premium escalation, withdrawal |
| Indicative total | ~10–11 | ~31–40 |
Source: Author estimates synthesising Deloitte, ABARES, GBRMPA, QRA, ICA data. The 2050 figures assume current policy trajectory (~2.5–3 degrees warming). Under aggressive mitigation (<2 degrees), disaster costs would still rise but at a slower rate, and GBR losses could be substantially reduced. These categories are not additive — significant overlap exists between disaster costs and infrastructure/insurance figures.
8. What the Data Shows
Established findings
Disaster costs are accelerating: QRA expenditure in the latest five-year period ($14.2B) approaches the cumulative cost of the Authority’s first five years. National disaster costs have doubled from $18B to $38B per year since 2017.
The ratio to GSP is worsening: Average annual disaster costs of ~1% of GSP are projected to reach ~2–2.5% by 2050. In extreme years, the figure already reaches 5–6% of GSP.
Climate-exposed sectors are economically significant: Over 21% of QLD’s GVA (34% including mining) is in industries directly vulnerable to extreme weather, drought, or reef degradation.
The GBR’s economic trajectory diverges from its ecological trajectory: Tourism has recovered to ~98% of pre-pandemic levels, but coral cover recorded its largest-ever declines in 2024/25. This gap cannot persist indefinitely — last-chance tourism may be masking underlying deterioration.
Insurance markets are pricing in the risk: 66% premium increases, 20% uninsured rate in North QLD, and insurer withdrawal from cyclone-prone regions are market signals of rising climate exposure.
The drought-flood cycle is the defining compound risk: It operates simultaneously across roads (pavement deterioration), livestock (price swings of 20–25x), fencing, water infrastructure, and agricultural productivity. Climate projections indicate both sides of the cycle will intensify.
GSP growth is directly impaired in disaster years: The 2010–11 event reduced real growth to 0.2% (2–3 points below trend), representing $5–8B in foregone output on top of direct damage costs.
Key uncertainties
The precise disaster cost growth rate: Deloitte’s 3.3% per annum is a central estimate; the actual rate depends on emissions pathway, adaptation investment, and the non-linear character of extreme events.
Whether a GBR tourism tipping point exists: Visitor numbers have proven resilient so far, but accelerating bleaching (six events in nine years) could trigger a non-linear decline in the tourism proposition.
The effectiveness of adaptation: The QRA betterment program shows a 4:1 return, but scaling such investment to match the projected growth in disaster costs requires a step change in spending.
The warming pathway: The difference between 2 degrees and 3 degrees of warming is not incremental — it is the difference between manageable adaptation costs and structural economic disruption. Current policies are tracking toward ~2.5–3 degrees.
Non-linear interactions: The compound effects of simultaneous drought, reef degradation, cyclone damage, and agricultural loss are poorly quantified. Historical events suggest the economic impact of compound events exceeds the sum of individual impacts.
Key Sources
QLD Economic Data
- ABS, Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, 2024–25 (Cat. 5220.0)
- DFAT, Queensland Country Economic Fact Sheet, 2024–25
- QLD Budget 2025–26, Budget Paper No. 2: Budget Strategy and Outlook
- QGSO, Economic Activity: Queensland State Accounts
- Tourism Research Australia, State Tourism Satellite Account
- Tourism & Events Queensland, Tourism Economic Key Facts
Disaster Costs
- QRA, Annual Report 2024–25
- Deloitte Access Economics / IAG, Building Australia’s Natural Disaster Resilience (2024)
- Deloitte, SE QLD Floods Economic Cost Assessment (2022)
- Deloitte, NQ Monsoon Trough Social and Economic Cost (2019)
- World Bank, Queensland Recovery and Reconstruction 2010/2011
- Climate Council, State of Queensland: Disaster Ground Zero (2024)
- ACCC, Northern Australia Insurance Inquiry Final Report (2020)
- ICA, Catastrophe data and annual reports
Climate Science
- CSIRO/BoM, State of the Climate 2024
- IPCC AR6, WGI Chapter 11: Weather and Climate Extreme Events
- QLD Future Climate Science Program (CMIP6)
- ABARES, Effects of Drought and Climate Variability on Australian Farms
Great Barrier Reef
- GBRMPA, Outlook Report 2024
- AIMS, Annual Summary Report of Coral Reef Condition 2024/25
- Deloitte Access Economics, At What Cost? (2024) and At What Price? (2017)
- Bozec et al. (2025), A Rapidly Closing Window for Coral Persistence (Nature Communications)
- Henley et al. (2024), 400-year GBR Temperature Record (Nature)