Matthew England’s Research
Professor Matthew England (Scientia Professor of Oceanography, UNSW) has led research on two critical ocean circulation questions relevant to Australia:
1. AMOC Collapse — La Nina as the New Normal
England’s research shows that a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation would:
- Shift Earth’s climate to a persistent La Nina-like state
- Cause excess tropical heat to accumulate south of the equator
- Intensify trade winds, pushing warm water towards Indonesian seas
- Result in wetter summers for northern and eastern Australia, with flooding rain the worst impact under concurrent long-term warming
- Climate models project AMOC could weaken 30% by 2060
Mechanism: A warmer south equatorial Atlantic triggers atmospheric waves that lower air pressure over northern Australia, pulling in more moisture and making summer rainfall heavier (The Conversation, 2022; The Conversation, 2025).
2. Southern Ocean Overturning Circulation
England’s 2023 work shows the Southern Hemisphere’s own deep-water formation system may also be failing, driven by Antarctic meltwater disrupting the formation of dense abyssal water. This could:
- Shift tropical rainfall systems
- Make the Southern Hemisphere drier overall, Northern Hemisphere wetter
- Reduce storm tracks reaching southern Australia, creating drier winters
Source: UNSW — Matthew England profile; Yale E360 — Ocean Circulation Collapse; UNSW — Australia’s ocean hottest on record 2024